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Lazy Ants · Web3 · Markets

Prediction Market DevelopmentWe build prediction markets, from the question to the payout.

Development of prediction markets for teams launching event trading: a venue under your brand or inside your product, an oracle and dispute design that settles every market, payouts in stablecoins. Plugged into an existing venue or built from scratch, in phases with a gate, at a fixed price per phase.

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Yes 62%38% No
  1. Question writtenSource: the ECB press release. Close: 18 Jun, 12:00 CET
    Spec
  2. TradingOrder book open, $1.2M collateral in
    Open
  3. EventDecision published 18 Jun, 14:15 CET
    Close
  4. Outcome proposedYes, 5,000 USDC bond staked
    +2 h
  5. Challenge window24 h, no dispute raised
    +26 h
  6. SettledYes redeems $1.00, No goes to zero, fees routed
    Paid
Collateral $1.2M · fee 2%Settled, no dispute

Illustration · figures are an example

What we build

The venue, the resolution layer, the settlement and the access rules. Configure one market to see the parts.

Every prediction market we develop is made of four choices. Make them for your first market and the card shows what your users would trade and what we build underneath to make it settle.

Outcome type

One question, two shares. The simplest to resolve and the easiest to make liquid.

Matching

A price from the first trade, from seeded liquidity. Right for new markets with thin volume.

Who resolves

Your team, or an allow-list, posts the outcome against the spec. Fast; the trust sits with you.

Who may trade

Anyone with a wallet. Simplest to run, and the one your lawyers will want to talk about.

Yes / No · market makerOpen

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Live · last trade 2 s ago
Yes 62%38% No
Buy Yes · $0.62Buy No · $0.38
Cut 25 bp58%
Cut 50 bp9%
Hold31%
Hike2%
Deposit rate after the meeting
1.50%3.00%2.19%
Pays out on the published figure, linear between the bounds
Price fromSeeded pool · $250k
Resolved byNamed resolver · 24 h window
What we build for this market, and what it locks at launch
  • Two-share market contracts with a void outcome that returns collateral
  • A seeded liquidity pool with a fee curve, funded before launch
  • A named-resolver module with an allow-list and a challenge window
  • Open access; blocking stays a product decision you can add later

A good first market with a known audience. Resolution design checks whether a named resolver is acceptable to your users and your regulator.

What you launch with

One platform. Five parts that cannot contradict each other.

What you launch with is a single product: one account, one ledger, one set of rules. The numbered parts are zones of that same screen. The resolution desk is the one the clone studios leave out.

markets.yourbrand.com
Yourbrand Markets
3
Balance1,240.00 USDCWithdraw
1

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Yes 62%38% No
Buy Yes · $0.62Buy No · $0.38
US CPI above 3% in May?27%
Fed holds in June?81%
Rate decision postponed?Void
2
Resolution deskAdmin
ECB cut in June?Proposed · Yes22:10 left
US CPI above 3%?ChallengedArbiters · 70 h
Fed holds in June?SettledPaid 14:02
Decision postponed?VoidReturned
4
Access · this marketEU open · US blocked · KYC above $1,000
5
Liquidity · operationsPool $250k · maker API on · 0 alerts

One screen, one account, one ledger · the numbers match the list

  1. 1
    Trading venueThe market list, the order book or market maker, positions and redemption. Web and mobile, under your brand or inside your product.
  2. 2
    Resolution deskThe admin side of the same platform: create markets from templates, propose and challenge outcomes, run the escalation, void with collateral returned.
  3. 3
    MoneyOne balance for trading and payouts: deposits and withdrawals in stablecoins, custodial or non-custodial, fees routed where you say.
  4. 4
    RulesAccess per market, set from the same admin: open, KYC above a limit, or per jurisdiction. Limits per account, and an audit trail finance and a regulator can read.
  5. 5
    Liquidity and operationsSeeded pools or a market-maker API, monitoring and alerts, and the runbook for a market that will not settle.
Where the market runs

Your own venue, or markets inside the product you already run.

The resolution, settlement and access layer is the same in all three. What changes is who owns the screen and where the user's balance lives.

markets.yourbrand.com
MarketsPortfolioLeadersRules
Markets · Macro

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Yes 62%38% No
$1.2M · closes 18 Jun
US CPI above 3% in May?27%
Fed holds in June?81%

A standalone venue

Your own market platform under your brand: web and mobile apps, order book or market maker, wallets and settlement. Everything on this page, as the product.

app.yourexchange.com/markets
TradeEarnMarketsWallet
Markets · New tab, same account

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Yes 62%38% No
Pays from your trading balance · 1,240.00 USDC
Balance usedUSDC, same wallet
KYCReused from your onboarding

Inside your web platform

A Markets tab in the exchange, the iGaming lobby or the community you already run. Same login, same balance, your records; the markets settle on our layer behind it.

9:41●●● ▲ ▮
Your appMarkets

Will the ECB cut its deposit rate at the June meeting?

Yes 62%38% No
Buy Yes · $0.62Buy No · $0.38
HomeMarketsWalletProfile

Inside your mobile app

A market screen in the app your users already have, through the SDK or the API. Orders, positions and payouts flow through your existing account; the resolution layer stays ours to run.

Two ways to get a market live: plug into one that already runs, or build your own.

Not every product needs its own market engine. If markets are a feature inside a product you already run, we connect an existing venue behind your screen. If the market is the product, we build it in four phases, in the order decisions become irreversible. Both start with the same call.

Right when
  • Markets are a feature inside a product that already exists
  • The venue's questions and resolution rules are acceptable to you
  • You want liquidity from day one without seeding it yourself
What stays with the venue
  • Which questions exist and how they resolve
  • The fees and the depth of the order book
  • Which jurisdictions it serves
  1. Venue and markets

    Which market layer fits your users and your jurisdictions: Polymarket through its public API, Azuro's pooled liquidity, or another venue. Which markets you list, and what their resolution rules mean for your users. Gate: the venue, the market list and its terms, agreed in writing.

  2. Connection

    The venue's API behind your screen: prices, orders, positions and payouts. Your users' balance and your KYC reused; a Markets tab in your web platform or your app. Gate: a market traded and settled end to end through your product on the venue's test environment.

  3. Rules, launch and the first month

    Access per jurisdiction where the venue allows it, limits per account, monitoring, the runbook. We stay on the desk for the first month of live markets.

Where our part endsWe do not obtain licences or decide your legal status; we build for the jurisdictions you name. We do not promise liquidity or volume. On an integration, the venue's questions and resolution rules stay the venue's; we do not change them. We prepare the system for a security audit; the audit is a separate engagement. Tokenomics, vesting and audit preparation are built under Smart Contracts and DeFi, priced on their own, so this price stays about the market.

What it costs

Prediction Market Development

Scoped on the callOption A · Integrate a ready-made market
From $40,000Option B · Build your own

What moves the price

  • Outcome types: binary, multi-outcome, scalar
  • Order book, market maker, or both
  • The oracle and the depth of the dispute path
  • Standalone venue, or inside your product
  • How many jurisdictions and KYC tiers

Either path is priced fixed by phase, with acceptance criteria, after the call.

What it costs

Prediction Market Development

Scoped on the callOption A · Integrate a ready-made market
From $40,000Option B · Build your own

What moves the price

  • Outcome types: binary, multi-outcome, scalar
  • Order book, market maker, or both
  • The oracle and the depth of the dispute path
  • Standalone venue, or inside your product
  • How many jurisdictions and KYC tiers

Either path is priced fixed by phase, with acceptance criteria, after the call.

The volume is already there. The open question is where your users will trade it.

Combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket went from $2.0 billion in July 2025 to $53.0 billion in July 2026, and as of March 2026 the two venues held about half each. One order of magnitude in a year, on two screens. That is why block 04 is a choice: plug into that liquidity, or build the venue your product needs.

Kalshi + Polymarket · monthly volume · $bnJul 2025 → Jul 2026
2.024.353.0
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul

Source: The Block data, Pew Research Center analysis, September 2026. Polymarket figures exclude Polymarket US.

Read next · InsightsWhy Prediction Markets Break at Resolution, Not at LaunchAmbiguous questions, oracle trust, disputes and irreversible payouts: the failures happen when the market has to decide who gets paid.Read the articleRead next · InsightsOracle and Resolution Design for Prediction Markets: Trade-Offs That Decide TrustSingle reporter, committee, optimistic oracle or token vote: who gets to declare the outcome, and what each choice costs.Read the article

Prediction market questions, answered

What founders and product teams ask before building a market. If yours is not here, bring it to the call.

What is prediction market development?
Building a venue where people trade on the outcome of events: the contracts that hold collateral, the matching that sets prices, the oracle that reports what happened, the dispute path that handles disagreement, and the access rules that decide who may trade. The resolution and settlement design is the part that decides whether the market can be trusted, so we start there.
Can we integrate Polymarket instead of building our own market?
Yes. If markets are a feature inside a product you already run, we connect an existing venue behind your screen: your users trade from their balance under your brand, and the venue's order book and resolution do the rest. Polymarket through its public API and Azuro's pooled liquidity are the usual candidates. You give up your own questions and resolution rules; you gain liquidity from day one. If you need rules no public venue offers, the build is the right path. We decide with you on the call.
Order book or automated market maker?
An automated market maker guarantees a price from the first trade and suits new markets with thin liquidity. An order book gives tighter prices once there is volume and is what the largest venues run. Many markets start on a market maker and move to an order book past a volume threshold; the switch-over rule is part of the design, and we fix it in the resolution spec.
How is a market resolved, and who decides a dispute?
Someone proposes an outcome and stakes a bond; anyone may challenge it inside a window; a challenge escalates up a ladder you have chosen, from arbiters to a court of last resort, each level with a cost and a deadline. The ruling is applied to the spec, winners redeem, the loser's bond pays the costs. All of this is fixed before launch, in the contracts.
What happens when a question turns out to be ambiguous?
The spec decides. Every market we design names its source, its timestamps, its tie rules and the conditions under which it voids with collateral returned. A question that cannot be answered against the spec voids; it is never settled on an argument about what the question meant.
Can we use UMA, Chainlink or our own oracle?
Yes to each, for the right market. An optimistic oracle suits event markets with a bonded challenge; a price feed suits up or down markets that settle in minutes; an in-house or allow-listed resolver suits markets where you want a named decider. We size bonds and windows to the market and connect the one you choose.
Which jurisdictions can trade?
The ones you name, per market. Access rules are part of the architecture: geoblocking, KYC tiers above a limit, markets that are closed in some places and open in others. Your lawyers decide the list; we build it so it holds, and we do not obtain licences for you.
How much does prediction market development cost?
Building your own market starts from $40,000 and is priced fixed by phase, with acceptance criteria, once the resolution spec is signed. Integrating a ready-made market is scoped on the call and priced the same way. What moves the build: outcome types, order book or market maker, the oracle and the depth of the dispute path, how many jurisdictions. A security audit is a separate engagement.
How long does it take?
We do not quote a duration before the resolution spec is signed, because the dispute path and the jurisdictions change it more than the interface does. What we do promise: a disputed market resolves end to end on a test network before anything launches, and the dates come with the fixed price.

Tell us about the market you want to run

The events, the outcome types and where your users are. If the market cannot be resolved as written, we will say so before anything is built.

Prediction Market Development | Build or Integrate